Weekly Commodity News 05/Mar/2012-10/Mar/2012

Gold tumbles as US Fed signals no further stimulation measures 05/Mar/2012

Gold shed 5% on Wednesday afternoon following the the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee this afternoon. In his report he gave no clear indication of further economic measures to stimulate the US economy and the outlook for inflation being "subdued'. The effect on gold was palpable.

In early London trading gold had been trading at $1790 and expected to launch an assault on resistance at $1796 (the November 14 2011 high) as well as the psychologically important $1800 level. The news that the US Federal Reserve may desist from further QE, threw the market into reverse, shedding $84/ounce. The news had a more modest impact on the US dollar index which rallied by approximately 1%. Bull runs are characterized by retracements such as these and in fact confer greater strength and validity on higher prices in the year to come. What will be most interesting is to see just how quickly gold recovers from this set back as it will be a good test of the resolve of gold bulls.

Iran stops exporting oil to Greece 05/Mar/2012

Iran has reportedly stopped delivering crude oil to Greece. This comes on the back of increased warning from Iran that it will immediately stop all oil exports to the EU in retaliation of the EU ban on Iran's oil.

Iran's FARS news agency reported that Greek oil tankers that had come to transfer 500,000 barrels of oil from Tehran to a refining complex in Greece was refused delivery by Iran and was sent back empty. However, no official confirmation has been received.

Earlier, Iran had stopped exporting oil to Britain and France and had announced that it would continue to export oil to only those nations that will give a guarantee to pay the oil price and sign medium to long term oil contracts. If Iran does continue to refuse delivering oil to Greece, the EU nation may face increasing problems since Iran is one of its major oil suppliers. Oil prices have been rising strongly for the past few days on the back of Iranian tensions.

Base metals recover on global cues 05/Mar/2012

Most of the base metals recovered moderately at at the non-ferrous metal market here today on renewed stockist buying amidst industrial demand on the back of higher London Metal Exchange (LME) cues.

Meanwhile, lead eased on lower offtake from alloy industries. The industrial metals were trading higher at the LME on positive US economic data as well as increased pace of bailout fund into eurozone financial system.

Copper cable scrap, copper scrap heavy, copper armiture, copper utensils scrap and copper wire bar all rose by Rs 4 per kg each to Rs 477, Rs 470, Rs 463, Rs 436 and Rs 505 from overnight close of Rs 473, Rs 466, Rs 459, Rs 432 and Rs 501.

Copper sheet cutting and aluminium ingots moved up by Rs 3 per kg to Rs 457 and Rs 135 as against Rs 454 and Rs 132.

G O L D - 05/Mar/2012

T E C H N I C A L  V I E W

MCX GOLD, last week shows bearish trend as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy, and gave breakout of channel pattern on down side. Now if gold break 28200 then bull rally may take it towards 29000 as on daily charts it shows reversal pattern. On other hand if it breaks 27700 then it may find next support around 27150.

S T R A T E G Y

Buy on dips with the stop loss of 27700, for the target of 28500/29000.

S I L V E R - 05/Mar/2012

T E C H N I C A L  V I E W

MCX SILVER moves in a channel pattern, last week it gave falls breakout on lower side. Now if it is able to sustain above lower band of channel then we expect it will test again upper band. 60700 is act as immediate resistance for silver above this it may face next resistance around 62000-63500. On lower side 58800 is crucial support for it.

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in the Mcx Silver at this point of time is to buy on dips. For the target of 62500, with stop loss of 58800.

C R U D E O I L - 05/Mar/2012

T E C H N I C A L  V I E W

On daily charts, crude oil looks in bullish trend. On daily charts it may find resistance around 5410 and if gives closing above this then we expect this bull rally continue towards level of 5530. On lower side 5280 is acting as support zone for crude oil below this correction is seen in it towards 5130 level.

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy above 5415. For the target of 5600 with stop loss of 5350.

COPPER  - 05/Mar/2012

T E C H N I C A L  V I E W

MCX COPPER last week showed bull trend and now it is around upper band of channel. On Friday it took resistance around 435 if it breaks this level then it may test upper band of channel after that we expect reversal towards lower band i.e. 420. On other hand if it gives breakout on upper side then bull rally continuous towards 465-480.

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in the MCX COPPER will be sell on highs, with the stop loss of 445 for the target of 420.