Weekly Commodity News-

 

India gold demand may weaken as govt doubles customs duty - 19/Mar/2012 – 24/Mar/2012

India's gold demand may weaken further on account of higher import duties. India has doubled the customs duty on Gold to 4% while doubling the customs duty on Jewellery to 10%, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said as part of his presentation of the Union budget. The increase in duties is seen as a move by the Finance Ministry to reduce the burgeoning fiscal deficit of the country. Various industry bodies like the ASOCHAM had advised the Indian government to implement measures to reduce India's fiscal deficit.

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In the beginning of 2012, the govt had raised the import duty on gold from Rs 300/10gms to 2% of the value of imported gold and now with the doubling of customs duty on gold and jewellery, consumers may have to yet again face the prospect of higher prices and this could dissuade them to make increased purchases. India's gold imports had dropped by over 40% in Q4, 2011 due to high prices and the Bombay Bullion Association (BBA) president Prithviraj Kothari had said that Indian demand will weaken further unless prices fall. As such, the hike in excise duty could do just that- reduce Indian imports.

China crude oil imports hit record high in February amidst wide trade deficit - 19/Mar/2012 – 24/Mar/2012

Crude oil imports by China rose to 23.64 million metric tonnes in February, latest data released by the General Administration of Customs shows. China is the second largest consumer of crude oil in the world. February's increased imports are 18.5% gain over February 2011 import figures and represents its highest monthly level on record. This has however widened the trade deficit. Despite the jump in oil imports, a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that Chinese oil demand growth will weaken in 2012 given that the country is projected to grow less than 8% this year.

 In fact, the report says that China's share of global oil demand growth will shrink to 45% in 2012 compared to 60% in 2011. China's February trade deficit at $31.5 billion was its biggest ever since 2000 and incited fears amongst investors that the Chinese economy may have run out of steam. Since China is dependent on its exports, the huge fiscal deficit points to the country's weakening revenue stream. Considering that Europe is China's biggest export market, it should not come as a surprise that the slowdown in Euro nations has affected the Chinese as well.

Chinese copper imports to drop substantially in March and April- 19/Mar/2012 – 24/Mar/2012

China's record copper imports during the latter part of 2011 and early 2012 means that copper inventories are now at a position where it could result in lower imports. China is the biggest consumer and importer of copper.

Copper inventories monitored by Shanghai Futures Exchange are at their highest since 2003 while China's February imports were the second highest ever at 484,569 tonnes. In contrast, supplies in Europe and the US are pretty tight. As such, Layton expects copper exports from China to pick up in March and April while copper imports into China drop substantially.

Meanwhile, Chinese copper production is also showing an uptick which could further add into domestic supplies, thereby strengthening the case for lower imports. As of the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China produced 437,500 tonnes of refined copper in Feb 2012, up around 9.50% Year-on-Year.

Benchmark LME copper prices are currently trading at $8,500/tonne, trading up for the year but still about 15% down from the $10,000/tonne peak hit last year.

 G O L D   T E C H N I C A L  V I E W - 19/Mar/2012 – 24/Mar/2012

MCX GOLD last week faced strong resistance at 28120 level. Amid volatility was seen on account of Budget session and closed with negative bias as per weekly charts. It looks good to buy above 28120 above which 28550 is seen as immediate resistance to move towards higher levels. On lower side, if 27400 level is breached then it looks weak which may take it towards 27170 levels.

 

S T R A T E G Y

Sell MCX Gold around 28000/28100 for the targets of 28700 with stop loss of 28200.

S I L V E R    T E C H N I C A L  V I E W- 19/Mar/2012 – 24/Mar/2012

On daily charts, MCX SILVER had made a triangle pattern. A breakout with good volumes from this pattern is expected in this week which may lead it towards 59500. On higher side, 61500 can act as strong resistance. On other hand, 56500 acted as support last week and is expected to act in coming sessions as well. Any fall below this can drift silver towards 55500 and 54000.

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in the Mcx Silver at this point of time is to sell on highs. For the target of 55550, with stop loss of 58200.

 C R U D E   T E C H N I C A L  V I E W- 19/Mar/2012 – 24/Mar/2012

Crude Oil showed sideway movements last week where 5420 acted as strong resistance. Last week crude broke its crucial support of 5280 but unable to give closing below this level. Now if crude will break 5420 then it may find next resistance around 5500. On lower side 5220 is acting as supporting zone for it.

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy on dips for the targets of 5500/5600.

C O P P E R   T E C H N I C A L  V I E W- 19/Mar/2012 – 24/Mar/2012

MCX COPPER has been moving in a strong channel pattern since months for which a breakout is still withheld. On daily charts copper was violated strong resistance of 435 gave closing below this level and form a reversal pattern doji. Now if it is maintain below 435 and break 431 with good volumes then next support is around 420. On higher side 440 is act as resistance. 

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in the MCX COPPER will be sell on highs, with the stop loss of 440 for the targets of 420.

Nifty trend for -19/Mar/2012

Markets were moved by the Budget impact and volatile movements with good volumes were observed for the whole session. Nifty future moved in the range of 150 points where it found stiff resistance at 5500. Selling pressure was seen from the level of 5450 where it slipped towards the support of 5330. Now, in the coming sessions if it sustains below 5300 then it is expected to trade around near support of 5200 while 5480 will act as strong intraday resistance.

TREND: DOWN

SUPPORT      : 5300 & 5230                

 RESISTANCE:  5400 & 5480

Major Market News-

·        Sensex ends 210 pts down post Budget; oil & gas down 3%.

·        Union Budget: Fiscal deficit target set at 5.1% of GDP in Budget 2012-13.

·        Jewellery makers shares down on gold customs duty hike.

·        ONGC declares second interim dividend of 30%.

·        BHEL pays 136% interim dividend for fiscal 2011-12.

Technical View-

BOMDYEING FUTURE HAS MADE REVERSAL PATTERN ON ITS DAILY CHARTS. HENCE, FOR THE COMING WEEK SOME SELLING IS EXPECTED.

Weekly Nifty trend for 19/Mar/2012 - 23/Mar/2012

Markets ended the eventful week on a negative note amid high volatility. On daily charts, if it breaks the trend line which is acting as support then nifty may slip towards 100 day EMA of 5190 in the coming week. However, 5460 is expected to act as stiff resistance breaching which it may move towards 5565 levels. 

Major Market News-

·        Sensex posts weekly loss of 37 points; CD, Realty, Teck fall.

·        Union Budget: Fiscal deficit target set at 5.1% of GDP in Budget 2012-13.

·        Greece would face disorderly euro exit without support: IMF.

·        Gasoline pushes up US inflation, dents confidence.

·        Government allows airlines to raise $1 billion in ECBs for a year.

·        Govt targets about $8 bn from telecoms spectrum auction

Technical View-

BOMDYEING FUTURE HAS MADE REVERSAL PATTERN ON ITS DAILY CHARTS. HENCE, FOR THE COMING WEEK SOME SELLING IS EXPECTED.

SELL BELOW 509 FOR TARGETS 490-475. MAINTAIN SL OF 530.

Nifty trend for 16/Mar/2012

Markets opened on a cautious note ahead of RBI monetary policy. There was a sudden decline after the policy announcement of keeping the rates unchanged. It breached 5400 level and made intraday low of 5397 but was able to close above 5400. Volatility is expected ahead of Union Budget hence cautious trading is recommended. 5300 will act as strong support for nifty while on higher side 5520 is seen as resistance for it.

TREND: SIDEWAYS

SUPPORT: 5370 & 5300 RESISTANCE: 5470 & 5520

Major market news-

·        Sensex ends 243 pts down on RBI's dovish note; Budget eyed.

·        Consumer durables, realty and banking were the biggest losers.

·        RBI credit policy: Central bank keeps key rates unchanged.

·        Realty, banking stocks slip over 2% on hawkish RBI stance.

·        L&T bags orders worth Rs 11.4 bn.

Nifty Trend for 15/Mar/2012

Markets had gap up opening on strong closings of US markets. Feb monthly Inflation figures and Railway Budget were responsible for the volatility of indices and few specific stocks. Nifty future settled above 5500 ahead of Monetary Policy.

Now, 5570 will act as immediate resistance for nifty in today’s session while 5600 is seen as crucial level for it. If it slips below 5500 then 5420 will become its intraday support.

TREND: UP

SUPPORT: 5470 & 5420 RESISTANCE: 5570 & 5630

Major Market News-

·        Sensex ends 106 pts up ahead of RBI policy; Bankex up 1.8%.

·        Banking and capital goods being the best performers.

·        Inflation climbs to 6.95% in February.

·        Wipro share sale offer gets 71% covered at the close of the auction.

·        Punj Lloyd bags order worth Rs 1.53 bn.

·        iGate Patni to start PCS share buyback from 28th March.

Nifty Trend for 14/March/2012

 

Markets continued to trade on positive note due to support of global cues where nifty future traded above

The intraday support of 5450 for the whole session and settled near the resistance level of 5470 according to daily charts. Now, 5520 is seen as crucial level for today’s session. If it is able to sustain above this level then 5570 can act as intraday hurdle for it. However, if support of 5400 breaks then it may again dip towards support of 5330.

TREND: UP

SUPPORT: 5400 & 5330 RESISTANCE: 5520 & 5570

Major Market News-

·        Sensex surges 224 points; RIL, Infosys, ONGC lead.

·        Biocon plunges as Pfizer cancels insulin pact.

·        Subex rises on order win from Idea Cellular.

·        Infosys in multi-year contract with GlaxoSmithKline.

·        Natco Pharma bags licence to sell Nexavar drug; stock up.

·        Premji Foundation to sell 35 mn shares in Wipro.

Nifty Trend for 06/03/2012

Markets had a gap down opening for the week and remained negatively biased for the whole session. When European markets opened then sentiments worsened further and nifty future slipped below 5300 to make intraday low of 5295. Now, for the coming sessions in this week, 5300 will act as crucial level as it has given breakout on lower levels on daily charts from the consolidation so formed last week. Now, 5260 is seen as support while 5380 will act as resistance.

TREND: SIDEWAYS

SUPPORT: 5260 & 5180 RESISTANCE: 5380 & 5450

Major Market News-

·        Sensex plunges 274 points; Realty, Metal drag.

·        Adani Enterprises inks pacts with NTPC for supply of imported coal.

·        Tata Power in JV with Exxaro Resources.

·        Suzlon arm bags order worth Rs 3.67 bn.

·        Indian private sector output expands at a slightly slower pace in Feb.

·         IRB Infra denies over bidding in Ahmedabad project

Equity Trend for 05-03-2012 to 9-03-2012

Nifty future ended the week on disappointing note on account of weak global & domestic cues and slowing FII inflows. On daily charts, it has been consolidated around 5330. If nifty slips below 5300 then we expect a bear rally towards its 200 day SMA near 5175 in coming sessions. On higher side, 5450 may act as strong resistance for it to remain in positive momentum.




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Nifty future could not give closing above the strong resistance level of 5450 last week and consolidated in the range of 5350-5450. On daily charts, breakout from this consolidation on lower side is expected where nifty may find its next support near 200 day EMA which is 5200. For, today’s session if it slips below 5330 then it may get support near 5250.  On higher side, 5450 is still acting as strong hurdle. Closing above this can support nifty to move towards higher levels.

TREND: SIDEWAYS

SUPPORT      : 5325 & 5260                  RESISTANCE:  5450 & 5520

Major Market News-

Ø Nifty gained 19 points, Banking stocks surge.

Ø Banking, healthcare, capital goods and metal were the best performers while realty was the biggest laggard  

Ø HCC yet to decide on debt restructuring, lenders adamant.

Ø  REC board approves raising Rs 3,000 cr through tax-free bonds.

Ø BHEL opposed to buyback but open to FPO/auction.

Ø 3i Infotech to begin talks for bond refinancing.

Weekly Commodity News 05/Mar/2012-10/Mar/2012

Gold tumbles as US Fed signals no further stimulation measures 05/Mar/2012

Gold shed 5% on Wednesday afternoon following the the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee this afternoon. In his report he gave no clear indication of further economic measures to stimulate the US economy and the outlook for inflation being "subdued'. The effect on gold was palpable.

In early London trading gold had been trading at $1790 and expected to launch an assault on resistance at $1796 (the November 14 2011 high) as well as the psychologically important $1800 level. The news that the US Federal Reserve may desist from further QE, threw the market into reverse, shedding $84/ounce. The news had a more modest impact on the US dollar index which rallied by approximately 1%. Bull runs are characterized by retracements such as these and in fact confer greater strength and validity on higher prices in the year to come. What will be most interesting is to see just how quickly gold recovers from this set back as it will be a good test of the resolve of gold bulls.

Iran stops exporting oil to Greece 05/Mar/2012

Iran has reportedly stopped delivering crude oil to Greece. This comes on the back of increased warning from Iran that it will immediately stop all oil exports to the EU in retaliation of the EU ban on Iran's oil.

Iran's FARS news agency reported that Greek oil tankers that had come to transfer 500,000 barrels of oil from Tehran to a refining complex in Greece was refused delivery by Iran and was sent back empty. However, no official confirmation has been received.

Earlier, Iran had stopped exporting oil to Britain and France and had announced that it would continue to export oil to only those nations that will give a guarantee to pay the oil price and sign medium to long term oil contracts. If Iran does continue to refuse delivering oil to Greece, the EU nation may face increasing problems since Iran is one of its major oil suppliers. Oil prices have been rising strongly for the past few days on the back of Iranian tensions.

Base metals recover on global cues 05/Mar/2012

Most of the base metals recovered moderately at at the non-ferrous metal market here today on renewed stockist buying amidst industrial demand on the back of higher London Metal Exchange (LME) cues.

Meanwhile, lead eased on lower offtake from alloy industries. The industrial metals were trading higher at the LME on positive US economic data as well as increased pace of bailout fund into eurozone financial system.

Copper cable scrap, copper scrap heavy, copper armiture, copper utensils scrap and copper wire bar all rose by Rs 4 per kg each to Rs 477, Rs 470, Rs 463, Rs 436 and Rs 505 from overnight close of Rs 473, Rs 466, Rs 459, Rs 432 and Rs 501.

Copper sheet cutting and aluminium ingots moved up by Rs 3 per kg to Rs 457 and Rs 135 as against Rs 454 and Rs 132.

G O L D - 05/Mar/2012

T E C H N I C A L  V I E W

MCX GOLD, last week shows bearish trend as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy, and gave breakout of channel pattern on down side. Now if gold break 28200 then bull rally may take it towards 29000 as on daily charts it shows reversal pattern. On other hand if it breaks 27700 then it may find next support around 27150.

S T R A T E G Y

Buy on dips with the stop loss of 27700, for the target of 28500/29000.

S I L V E R - 05/Mar/2012

T E C H N I C A L  V I E W

MCX SILVER moves in a channel pattern, last week it gave falls breakout on lower side. Now if it is able to sustain above lower band of channel then we expect it will test again upper band. 60700 is act as immediate resistance for silver above this it may face next resistance around 62000-63500. On lower side 58800 is crucial support for it.

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in the Mcx Silver at this point of time is to buy on dips. For the target of 62500, with stop loss of 58800.

C R U D E O I L - 05/Mar/2012

T E C H N I C A L  V I E W

On daily charts, crude oil looks in bullish trend. On daily charts it may find resistance around 5410 and if gives closing above this then we expect this bull rally continue towards level of 5530. On lower side 5280 is acting as support zone for crude oil below this correction is seen in it towards 5130 level.

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy above 5415. For the target of 5600 with stop loss of 5350.

COPPER  - 05/Mar/2012

T E C H N I C A L  V I E W

MCX COPPER last week showed bull trend and now it is around upper band of channel. On Friday it took resistance around 435 if it breaks this level then it may test upper band of channel after that we expect reversal towards lower band i.e. 420. On other hand if it gives breakout on upper side then bull rally continuous towards 465-480.

S T R A T E G Y

Better strategy in the MCX COPPER will be sell on highs, with the stop loss of 445 for the target of 420.

Nifty trend for 02/03/2012

Markets remained cautious for yet another day and nifty future traded below 5400 for most part of the session while weak opening of European markets made nifty future to slip towards support level of 5340. Now, if the crucial level of 5300 breaks then nifty will trade in the weak zone of 5200-5265 for today’s session. On higher side, if 5450 level is surpassed then 5540 will act as strong resistance to move it on higher side.

TREND: SIDEWAYS

SUPPORT: 5325 & 5265 RESISTANCE: 5450 & 5520

Major Market News-

·        Sensex ends down 169 points; DLF, M&M, BHEL drag .

·        India`s Manufacturing PMI falls to 56.6 in February .

·        Tata Motors sales climb 19% in Feb 12.

·        Maruti Suzuki February sales climb 6.5%.

·        M&M sales rise 29% in Feb 12.

·        Videocon Industries Q4 profit drops 46.7%.

·        PSU shares gain as as government approves buyback.